One of the things that is hard to decide, is which tools to use online.  I’ve bought autoresponders, audio recording software, shopping carts, merchant accounts, web hosting, domains and now am looking at various marketing tools.  By far, in the lead is Traffic Geyser.  And then I saw this amazing offer that is coming soon.  It will change the way I do almost everything online and simplify my business greatly.  I want more time to spend with my family, and from what I’ve seen so far, this can’t miss!

If you want to check it out, see this amazing video.  You won’t believe your eyes. 

 I haven’t seen anything like this in the five years I’ve been doing my online marketing and it’s a decision I’ve already made to chase. 

Keep your eyes peeled - I’ll keep you in touch with my journey in making this opportunity a reality for me.  I’ll walk you through my decision and how I made this work for me.

Sharon

PURPOSE

We’ll start by discussing Purpose. This step is used to examine issues and frame the decision. What is the purpose of the decision? Here are some “hints” or trigger questions to enable the decision maker to create their boundaries for the decision. - What is the Purpose of the decision?

- What is the problem to be solved?

- What is the CRUX of the problem?

- Does our frame/boundaries define the right problem?

- Challenge ourselves

- Seek other opinions

- Welcome diversity

- Brainstorm it - think about all the potential purposes of this decision

- Lateral thinking - list things related laterally to the decision at hand?

- Benchmarking - are there any benchmarks related to the decision?

- Monitor the world - is there global influences on the decision?

- Examine analogous situations

INPUT

The second step in deBono’s PISCO thinking model is to gather input. The intention is to communicate and gather knowledge surrounding the decision.

- Gather data - What do we need to know to make the decision?

- Communicate. Make sure that we know what the stakeholders know. Make sure that the stakeholder knows what we know.

- How Much Input is needed?

- First several interviews provide most of the data.

- Breadth then depth (“skim, highlight, read”) - think wide, rather than deep when gathering info

- To improve data gathering - include a confidence level in any estimates needed, provide feedback to people for calibration, question all assumptions, review data

- Exploration of the data - during the input stages, we may need to explore some aspect the decision to be made. We may not know enough about the design/structure it should take. If the stakeholder has not formed a clear perception of what the decision should achieve, this needs to be explored.

- A key exploration technique is prototyping or modeling - which models can be applied here?

CREATION

The third step in PISCO is creation plausible solutions.

- Generate Alternatives - Practiuce divergent thinking

- Ask how this decision can be made? How can things be done?

- Be Provocative or practice lateral thinking. Invert an assumption to come up with more potential solutions. For example, reverse the assumption “our production lines have fixed capacity” vs. “our production lines have variable capacity”

- If you are using this model model within a group group environment, debate. It can be healthy and generate more solutions.

- Employ deBono’s “ Six Thinking Hats ” technique - can this generate more solutions?

CHOICE

The fourth step within PISCO is Choice.

Evaluate the solutions, employ tools and arrive at a decision.

- Practice Convergent thinking

- Employ Evaluation models. You can and/or should choose more than one here such as the PMI Tool , a Subjective Linear Model (SLM) or a Weighted Matrix . You might want to use a Risk assessment to each viable solution.

- Eliminate alternatives that don’t meet mandatories before going into a detailed evaluation.

- Note that criteria, must differentiate between alternatives

OPERATION

The fifth step within PISCO is Operation

- List the steps necessary to put the choice into operation. Set a Goal/target, Action, Why, Who is responsible, and When will it be done

- Just Do it!

Especially in the case of disputes between two parties, one may deliberately delay and use strategic decision delays in order to avoid a potentially unfavorable decision.

Delays can allow people who oppose change to remain satisfied without having to formally oppose or demonstrate their opposition.

If a person or group prefers that no decision be made, it can be to their benefit to select a decision making process that is incredibly slow and cumbersome, employing strategic decision delays. If they have no control over the process used, they can drag their feet to delay or slow the process. Delay strategies are often used by those who don’t have the power to officially veto or win the decision in their favor. The best example is in politics and government.

Even more common is delay tactics when land or real estate is being selected, as almost as often as always, there is a party opposed. Someone will be disadvantaged.

In a sports game, a delay is make to either force one group out of their increased momentum, or to allow the group to create tactics which will allow them to switch momentum. It is similar in business when takeovers and mergers occur.

A tactical delay can be used when a decision maker is being asked to make decisions that will ensure the negative reaction of their opposition and jeopardize their future with the organization. Often they can avoid making the decision entirely. They may say they don’t have enough information, and go so far as to appoint a council or group to study the situation.

Negotiation timing is everything. Forcing deadlines is the only way to ensure these tactics are not employed. Sometimes these deadlines can come and go, but employing some strategic tactic to tie the deadline to something with high optics in the system works best.

For more on Management Decisions or Group Decision Making see our information pages. For precise, concise decision making strategies for individual scenarios, try our DECIDE GUIDES

The fact that some choices are good doesn’t necessarily mean that more choices is better. Nor will that many choices Reduce Uncertainty, nor will it help you overcome indecision.

There’s a point where too many choices starts to become not only unproductive, but counterproductive–a source of pain, regret, worry about missed opportunities and unrealistically high expectations.

Some researchers find that too many options can actually lead people to take less positive risks in making selections and to use simplifying strategies in lieu of more considered choices.

While the fact is that we don’t necessarily want to satisficing all of the time, we do want to ensure we have enough options to make a wise decision. Sometimes, satisficing is a perfectly acceptable method. As we increase the number of options we have, we become more unable to adequately analyze the options to the best extent possible.

People generally don’t want to make their own decisions. There is a disconnect between theory—what people think they want, and reality. When it comes time to make a decision, many people say they wish there were less choices - they want the decision to be easier to make. Often, when there are Too Many Choices they avoid making the decision altogether.

There are many people who are trying to simplifying their life and understanding that the choices that they make — instead of denying you freedom, provide constraints that let you have a real freedom from the tyranny of endless choices.

How can we apply this to our decision making process. We may start with a definition of our problem and constraints. Some processes then may abdicate generation of a list of alternatives. At this time, we may apply a simple process to reduce our number of choices.

If we can make a few passes at the list, and leave ourselves between three and five choices, depending on the size of the decision, can you imagine how much easier the analysis will be?

For example, in our Decide Guides we may often apply a two or three pronged approach in discarding unviable alternatives. Can you imagine how much easier it is to decide between three cars to buy with three entirely different sets of specs and options than it is to choose between 15 or 20?

Study the options, then settle on something you feel good, if not perfectly, about; let informed sources like Consumer Reports choose for you; don’t compare your acquisitions to others; and don’t wallow in regret–since, in the long run, people feel worse about inaction than action.

And as we move along in the world, we learn that it is not at all certain. It is far from static and permanent. In fact, it is said that change is the only certainty. We all have expectations, and many things don’t always turn out the way you expect.

Rather than resisting change, some of us embrace change. Those of us who embrace it, are usually much happier. We feel that change is interesting and will add color to our lives. Decisions are essentially advocating change, unless a decision is made where one of the options is not to change at all.

Some people prefer resisting change and will sabotage an effort when asked to perform Change is something that makes everyone uncomfortable at some time or another. It’s is usually when we are in a position where we do not expect change, we are most surprised when it is impending. We like to feel secure, and we were raised in world’s of stability, continuity, and comfort (I hope!)

And as we move along in the world, we learn that it is not at all certain. It is far from static and permanent. In fact, it is said that change is the only certainty. We all have expectations, and many things don’t always turn out the way you expect.

Some people embrace change and there are some of us who fight it. Those of us who embrace it, are usually much happier. We feel that change is interesting and will add color to our lives. Decisions are essentially advocating change, unless a decision is made where one of the options is not to change at all. Some people resist change and will sabotage an effort when asked to perform Group Decision Making

Usually when a group has been gathered to help make a decision, someone has already decided that something has to change. It is impending, if not looming, and those who resist can typically be left behind. If you are one of those who have problems accomodating change in your life, I would suggest that you make it a practice to change something periodically to become more comfortable. This is how you will stop resisting change.

Take a different route to work, choose something different from a menu. These are little, low-risk decisions you can make for practice.

Often people who are resistant to change need to be led through transition, or helped through other Decision Making Pitfalls. It is an internal experience than many must survice when something major changes in an organization. When a change is a natural disaster, leaders emerge and we are led from it to recovery.

When it occurs in the workplace, there is always a leader to follow, unless you, yourself have abdicated the change. In that case, if you need a leader, you can search out external help to coach you from the sidelines, or be your shadow in making your decision.

Sometimes, decisions impact several areas of your life. Moving to work in a different city is a prime example - your living and travel arrangements have to change, your job, your environment, and even your friends.  You may be avoiding these big decisions.  Are you procrastinating?

You need to find new sources of your most usual services, such as mechanics and hair salons. Each big life decision that impacts so many parts of your life should be very carefully thought out, as they are difficult to reverse, but sometimes the benefits behind these changes can bring you the most joy you will ever experience.

Sounds good? Well, not really - if you can’t decide, you aren’t ever going to get what it is you want or need to make a decision about. You may allow for new choices to appear, but the uncertainty or lack of closure can bring on anxiety and stress. When in doubt, consult your inner child. Thing about what you really want, if there were no constraints, rules or any one passing judgement on you.

If it doesn’t come naturally, leave it to simmer for awhile. Indecision can come because you either don’t have enough information or you are simply not ready to make it. Sometimes it is difficult when the difference between decisions is small, or the options aren’t completely understood or even known.

You may need more analysis, but beware Analysis Paralysis, in which analysis goes beyond adding any value to the decision exercise.  Another problem might be procrastination.  Is that what is holding you back from deciding?

One particular method, while not necessarily the best, is making decision by Minimizing Regret. One cannot regret something if they have not decided, but one cannot enjoy or reap the rewards of making the decision alternatively.

Making a decision is easy: when the difference is big you know what to choose, and when the difference is small, it does not really matter what you chose. List and rate the risks by likeliness to occur, and apply your preferences to the alternatives.

Often, making a bad decision is better than making no decision at all. Importance is always relative to the size, cost and impact of the decision to be made. Decision making takes practice, and knowledge. Find your own process that works for you and use it as much as you can!

Most of us won’t realize, until it’s too late, that incorporating flexibility often makes things less flexible in the long run. In an illusion of flexibility example, I was once presented with newly created insurance option, created for me by my employer. My employer was an insurance company, so at first I thought “Hey, wow, this is great - I can opt out of one benefit, and put more money towards another”.

Once I got to the fine print, I realized that in order to use this great new system, which, by the way, never got off the ground because most employees opted out, insisted I pick from their list of dentists and doctors if I wanted the maximum amounts of those benefits.

Great flexibility, but reduced choices and inflexible options if you’d built up a relationship with an existing doctor.

If more flexibility is given to one party, there must be a trade-off and it’s worth investigating before a decision is made, as it may be deterimental in the long run.

Try some of our Decision Making Tools to evalate your options before jumping into something for the long haul.

This does not mean that we can’t assess the level of uncertainty and choose a Decision Making Process appropriately. We have to separate what is known, from unknown, and how to apply that information to our decision. Sometimes additional analysis is all that required, and analysis of what is not known is crucial.

Once we have gathered all the information needed, we must deal with uncertainty. Usually, a decision that employs some flexibility is the best solution. We cannot lock ourselves into a decision that will negatively impact us severely in the future.

The next step is to successfully incorporate strategies for dealing with uncertainty into the dispute resolution process. In general the key to dealing with uncertainty is to retain as much flexibility as possible.

Rather than locking oneself into a decision which might be disastrous, try to make decisions that can be adjusted for changes later or something which occurs in the future.

An alternative approach is insurance, which compensates people who get harmed by an unexpected or unlikely occurrence. Risk avoidance is another approach. Assessing risks associated with each alternative is one way to quantify and judge the merits of each potential solution, thus reducing uncertainty.

If your decision is financial, there are many valuation models that can be used to reduce uncertainty.

If the person who suggested this in the first place, also had an alternate choice and included the phrase “How about we meet at this bar or that pizza joint”, do you think an immediate opinion would emerge? Of course there would, but if there are too many cohices, we might become paralyzed while deciding. In the end, we might say “don’t worry about it - I’ll stay in”, or go off to a movie on our own.

In business, we call this Analysis Paralysis. It is a very costly and destructive situation. In some situations, we need an alternate choice to limit the decision maker’s options. An alternate-choice close presents the customer with a simple choice; Regardless of which choice the person makes, the decision is made.

“Do you want black or white?”, “Do you want fries with that?”, “Cash or credit?” limit simply decisions to parameters that ensure the decision can be quickly made.

Decision Analysis begins with a filtering process which allows us to weed out extraneous information.

There are many Decision Making Tools that help us make better decisions. Good Decisions are those whose outcomes meet our expectations.

In the simplest case, we can use Cost Benefit Analysis to weigh the pros and cons of each choice. However, this often leads to trade-off analysis as we only want the benefits not the costs of the choices available and yet often we can only choose one, not both.

When there are many choices with many characteristics, we can use a multi-attribute utility analysis tool. We set out the criteria or attributes to which we attach weights according to importance to us and the problem definition.

Each choice is weighed against each attribute. We complete with a weighted average calculation.

For decisions that lead to other decisions or whose impact appear some time in the future, we can use Decision Trees to analyse our interaction with the unknown.

Learners and Abdicators

Most people either want to know about the details (learn) or pay someone else to figure it out (abdicate).

Some of us are willing to learn decision analysis in certain situations and are too overwhelmed and want help in others.

We are in a time that many folks want results now, and have figured out that the learner approach is wasting their time in areas in which they have no interest or are not worth it. A great example is all of the companies who are preaching “stick to core competencies” as their primary mode of operation.

Many decisions these days are very complicated. We can’t just pay someone else to choose for us. So we do some research, find others who have experienced the same decision making process, and then decide.

We propose a mixture - we provide step-by-step guides which are packaged with the appropriate process, questions and tools to do it yourself. Methods and ways of doing the analysis are laid out for the only person who can truly decide, and that is you.